October 15, 2025
VOLUE is developing energy demand and price forecasting methods that enable the TWINVEST digital twin to deliver detailed electricity market insights to wind energy stakeholders at a regional level. The insights aim to illustrate potential wind energy yields and corresponding market-based revenues under future scenarios of energy consumption and price profiles. The work considers the dynamics of EU electricity markets within the framework of the planned integrated EU market space.
Based on this information, it is worth noting that European electricity markets are among the most rapidly evolving. This hypothesis is strengthened by the fact that, over the past 30 years, EU markets have transitioned from vertically integrated systems to a two-sided competitive auction framework. At the same time, new markets are gradually emerging to competition, with the current aim of recasting to a single transnational electricity market across the entire EU. Achieving this vision requires the integration of existing marketplaces.
With this objective in mind and considering the current structure of the European market model, regional-level input parameters were defined for demand and price forecasting. This approach simplifies the decision within the digital twin and enables the delivery of a more concise investment outlook. One of the key findings of the work is clustering European market zones into three main categories: highly integrated, moderately integrated, and poorly integrated market clusters. Additionally, the model parameters for forecasting demand and price were tuned at the cluster level which significantly reduces the complexity for the digital twin users.
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